Zimbabwe’s referendum results signal another Mugabe election victory

The people of Zimbabwe overwhelmingly voted for a new constitution, endorsing a new dispensation and a new value system that sets in motion a new and democratic paradigm for the country. From the Zambezi to the Limpopo, millions voted for a new era that respects human dignity; an era that will see the broadening of basic human rights, the empowerment of women and the setting of term limits for the President and heads of other public bodies

ALMOST 95 percent of Zimbabweans voted in favour of a new constitution that paves the way for new elections. Tallies released by the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission (ZEC) reported 3,079,966 voters were in favour of the new constitution and 179,489 were against. A total of 56,627 votes were spoilt. The official turnout of 3,317,695, which is well more than half the 5,6 million eligible voters, was higher than many analysts had expected-an affirmation of the country’s electoral maturity.

The election proved a breath of fresh air for locals who had become accustomed to an electoral process that is mired in serious political confrontations. Recent electoral experiences in Zimbabwe have been marred by instances of politically motivated violence, interference by Western countries, allegations of cheating among other allegations of indiscretions that have made elections in the country a grim prospect for many. The poll was given a rousing seal of approval by all and sundry, including countries and regional blocks that have traditionally been anti-Zimbabwe such as the European Union and the United States.

And now Zimbabweans, especially the government and state institutions, face the sternest test of sincerity because the country has adopted this Constitution on the eve of an election. Zimbabwe’s President Robert Mugabe has since said once the new constitution sails through Parliament, elections would be due. He ruled out extending the life of the current Parliament which expires at the end of March – coincidentally the same time that he is bound by a court ruling to announce the date for general elections.

Yes the referendum came. And yes it is gone. But its mathematics remains, buoying some, bloodying others. In the referendum, I am ready to show you the world in a grain of numbers! There is panic, absolute panic in the camp of those worsted by its numbers. So stunned is the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC-T) that it can’t even think of a clever spin to the whole result which clearly emits a rural stench.

Facts are inconvenient things. More than that, they are stubborn. Sadly, the interpreters of fact — humans — are not nearly as reliable. We are subject to shifting emotions, cruel bias and sometimes plain evil prejudices. It is these human frailties that often lend the seemingly obvious to imaginative interpretations. It’s a cruel world for the objective man, or woman.

There is much more comfort in taking sides. “Robert Mugabe is a demon”. “Morgan Tsvangirai is a crusader for democracy”. I suffer the incurable curse of a scientific mind. So much so I must always call it as it is, however, inconvenient. Robert Mugabe who has been at the helm of Zimbabwe since 1980, at the helm of Zimbabwean politics since 1960 will certainly win the next election.

For the document about to be Zimbabwe’s supreme law was carried by the rural vote. We can rationalise, but in our heart or hearts, we know who commands it, who loses when it is withheld, again who loses when it is marshalled to its fullest. There is no doubt that the he rural folk remain a steadfast bastion of patriotism and can be counted on to deliver votes for Zanu-PF, come the next election. I am talking about the rural/urban dichotomy which shapes Zimbabwe’s electoral politics. On the other hand the MDC formations, had hoped that by employing the referendum voting process, they could gauge their appeal, gauge the efficacy of their mobilisation tools. In the case of MDC-T, it has been about checking on the efficacy of voter clubs, the responsiveness of the urban youth vote. Lots of new technology was deployed to rouse this diffident yet tempestuous age group. MDC-T messages became mere spam! There is deep soul-searching, tinged with despair.

The referendum result has been a devastating revelation. The strategy simply came unstuck. The party has been banking on a very mercurial stratum, a last-minute voter who simply won’t be bothered, or will lazily trudge to a polling booth when all else is done for the day, and when the queue is short enough for his limited attention span.

Zanu PF needs only two rural provinces to wash out Harare’s nearly half a million voters which are certainly highest vis-a-vis the rest of the provinces, but decidedly modest relative to its voting strength. Voting trends in the referendum showed most Zanu-PF strongholds in rural areas delivering high turnouts to drive the “Yes Vote” with MDC-T-dominated urban areas recording low endorsement. This projection  dovetails with  National Constitutional Assembly (an NGO that campaigned for a No vote) chairman Professor Lovemore Madhuku’s projections issued  during a discussion forum at Sapes Trust in Harare where he said Zanu-PF was headed for victory in the harmonised elections based on referendum voting patterns that saw Zanu-PF strongholds deliver the Yes Vote.