(Image Credits: UNSPLASH)
In the past few weeks, much attention has been on the longstanding Labour safe-seat of Gorton and Denton. Despite the expectation of a close call result, the Greens won the by-election with a sizable majority, securing 14,980 votes. Reform UK placed second with 10,578, Labour finished third on 9,364, and the Conservatives saw their worst ever by-election result.
Spencer’s victory made history in British politics as the first Green candidate to win a by-election and the party’s first MP in the north of England. In her victory speech, the plumber-turned-politican vowed to fight for working people, lower bills, protect the NHS and work to rebuild the constituency’s “failing public services”. She also brought attention to the attempted attack on a Mosque during Ramadan earlier that week and spoke out against the “divisive figures who constantly scapegoat and blame our communities for all the problems in society”.
Green party leader Zack Polanski described the result as a “seismic” victory, proving that Greens offer a real challenge to the Labour party. He highlighted that the seat had originally been 147th in their list of priority and that the result has clearly shown that even previously loyal supporters of Labour are feeling disenchanted.
Kier Starmer described Labour’s loss as a “very disappointing result” but emphasised that incumbent governments often see these kinds of results mid-term. While that may be the case, this by-election has marked a major defeat for the Labour Party. Not only did they place behind both the Greens and Reform, but the constituency of Gorton and Denton has been Labour since 1931. Therefore, this historic overturning of Labour’s longstanding dominance in the constituency shows much more than just dissatisfaction with the incumbent government. Rather, their loss has displayed the fracturing of their previously staunch support base and, crucially, a wider shift towards an era in which multi-party politics is becoming more prominent in Britain.
Labour’s defeat has been further damaging for the Prime Minister following the barring the Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham from standing, with critics arguing that Starmer has effectively thrown away the seat in order to protect his own leadership. Many have questioned whether if Burnham had been allowed to stand, Labour may have been able to hold onto the seat. However, as Burnham is largely seen as an anti-Starmer vote, even if this had been the case the outcome would have also been detrimental to the Labour leader.
Reform’s second place result saw an increase of their vote share by 15% and, by some commentators’ estimation, was a relatively good result for the party. Their swing in vote share was reflective of the swing elsewhere in the UK, unlike the Greens, who massively outperformed their national polling.
Following their loss to the Green Party, Reform UK leader Nigel Farage claimed that the result was “a victory for sectarian voting and cheating”. Reform have reported an allegation of high levels of “family voting”, whereby a family member enters the voting booth with somebody and could thus influence their vote. Despite these allegations, the Greater Manchester Police told the BBC that it received “no reports” of electoral offences at the by-election. In response to Reform’s claims, the Green Party said: “This is an attempt to undermine the democratic result and is straight out of the Trump playbook.”
While by-elections often see surprising and unexpected results that do not necessarily play out in the same way as national elections, it is important to recognise the significance of this election for Labour’s already weak position and the implications it may have for the future of British politics. With the Green and Reform enjoying increasing voter support, a clear threat to the traditional two-party system has been established and the Green victory is yet another example of the deteriorating support for the Labour government.